Development of the economy

Outline the structural long-term trends in the German economy with reference to the traffic area, three influences can be recognized:

First, the share of services in the total output increases continuously. This dampens the development of freight transport, because transport volumes between goods producers increase less than in the reference case of a growth without structural reduction of the manufacturing industry. The consumer demand for goods remains unaffected.

Second, goods production shifts to goods with a higher value-weight relation. This has a dampening effect on the transport quantity, at the same time but usually increases the truck affinity of the goods to be transported.

These two aspects in themselves favor a decoupling between economic development and transport development, in fact rising the transport performance but faster than the GDP.

This decoupling counteracted falling transport costs, which it allow goods with a low value-weight relation to continue to be transported, and in particular the trend towards an increasing division of labor between companies.

This last point is for our analysis in the foreground, he should therefore be shown in more detail. What does division of labor mean? Companies for their own production, they increasingly rely on intermediate products from other companies (outsourcing), which reduces their vertical range of manufacture accordingly. The interplay of the manufacturing depth is decisive

Production, transaction and transport costs (Haubold 1995) and the development from seller to buyer market.

This trend is evident in all economic sectors exception of trade and agriculture and forestry. At the same time, the macroeconomic intermediate consumption rate hardly changed, as economic sectors with below-average rates such as service companies structurally gain importance. For freight transport is a sinking vertical integration in the manufacturing industry, it creates the need for transport at the production level.

The calculated intermediate service quota includes both goods and services,

but delivers real 2 values. All other sources available (input-output and cost structure statistics) differentiate inputs more, but only point

nominal values. Nominal values ​​have the disadvantage of being divergent

Price developments are not taken into account. For example, if the pre-employment rate falls in nominal terms, it may be because that proportionally less goods flow into the production process, or that prices are falling.